The overall market includes all companies and is thus, by definition, average in terms of quality, valuation, and performance. Comparing one’s investments to the overall market appears to be a reasonable starting point because the goal should be to achieve above-average returns. However, from time to time there are exaggerations that lead to certain areas of the market being disproportionately represented at the least favorable times. At the turn of the millennium, it was technology companies. During the 2007 financial crisis, it was the financial industry, and in 2021, it was expensively valued growth stocks and long-term bonds. The opposite is also true. Neglected and undervalued areas are temporarily underrepresented in the overall market.
When the investment strategy simply replicates the market, or the asset manager is measured against it in the short term, the risk of being exposed to these temporary exaggerations is particularly high. The fact that these periods are often accompanied by intensive media coverage and correspondingly high interest from private investors further complicates the situation.
The past year serves as a good illustration. When interest rates reached their lowest levels, it was the general expectation that this situation would persist. Consequently, equity valuations played a negligible role due to the absence of opportunity costs. The investors’ focus was on stocks with the most compelling growth stories and equities with steady earnings, which were used as substitutes for bonds. Accordingly, their valuation was very demanding. With the return of higher interest rates, the mathematical laws of gravity returned to the markets as we outlined in our investment letter in the second quarter of 2022. Current earnings and future financial prospects must once again compete with considerable fixed-income alternatives.
When it comes to bonds, particular attention should be paid to the duration risk, which is a measure of how long capital is committed. As in the stock market examples mentioned earlier, once again market positioning was at its most extreme at the least favorable time. When the Swiss bond market in 2020 showed a negative yield to maturity, the duration of the fixed income market reached its peak. Replicating the market or the benchmark indices would have tied up capital for almost eight years at negative interest rates. The other major currencies also exhibited a similar pattern during this time period.
Yield-to-Maturity vs. Duration
(SBI AAA-BBB)
The graphic above illustrates how bond market duration had steadily increased as interest rates had fallen Companies have used the low-interest-rate environment to issue long-term bonds and secure the low-debt costs for the foreseeable future. The resulting low coupon payments have meant that investors not only provided capital for an extended period but also received minimal cash flows during this time. Consequently, long-term bonds have corrected significantly to reflect the new interest rate environment.
As active and independent investors we see our role in constantly challenging the market’s proposition as well as our own positioning. In order to do what is right for our clients in the long run, we must scrutinize risks and withstand short-term pressure This allows our portfolios to circumvent temporary exaggerations and stay true to the suitable strategy throughout the entire economic cycle.
Due to the significant increase in interest rates, we have experienced in a short period of time, we consider the current environment to be challenging. The delayed impact on governments, businesses, and households is multifaceted and complex besides being fundamental for asset valuations. As a first consequence, we witnessed the bankruptcy of Silicon Valley Bank and the acquisition of Credit Suisse, accompanied by government interventions. Governments are facing significantly higher interest costs, further increasing their steadily growing debt burden. Consumers are not only forced to cope with higher interest rates but are additionally grappling with increased costs of living and the gradual depletion of their excess savings accumulated during the Covid lockdown. The current market volatility reflects these circumstances and also the major shifts in consensus expectations among market participants.
For us, the robustness of our investments, regardless of the scenario that unfolds, is of utmost importance. The companies we hold in the client portfolios have proven time and again that they can successfully overcome difficult markets. Thanks to their leading market positions, rising costs could be passed on to end consumers. Structural growth in products and services lead to scale efficiencies and low levels of indebtedness keep interest expenses in check. Both the yields on our selected stocks and bonds have increased over the past months, which is generally positive for expected returns. For now, it will be decisive when and at what level interest rates stabilize or reach their peak. This, in turn, depends on the path of inflation and the economy. Instead of making a conclusive forecast, we focus on staying agile, analyzing the constantly changing data situation and taking advantage of opportunities that arise from the challenging environment. The key is to distinguish between the assessment of the environment and what is already reflected in current prices.
Zurich, end of September 2023
An important parameter for assessing the market valuation is the risk premium, which represents the difference between the yield of corporate earnings and risk-free government bonds. As interest rates remain elevated, equity markets approach previous highs and have risen disproportionally to corporate earnings. As a result, the risk premium is low despite the difficult market environment.
At present, inflation poses a significant source of uncertainty. However, the growth in corporate earnings demonstrates that companies have successfully tackled this challenge and have managed to partially offset the impact of inflation. On the other hand, fixed rate government bonds lack this characteristic, which justifies a lower risk premium for equities. To truly understand the risk-premium of stocks, it is important to consider the corporate earnings yield in relation to the inflation-adjusted real yield of government bonds. This perspective provides a more balanced view of the real risk premium and offers a more concise assessment of the current valuation of the stock market.
However, there are significant variations in the risk premiums among different sectors and individual stocks, reflecting investors’ expectations regarding their ability to thrive in the current environment. Companies are continuously striving to enhance efficiency and achieve economies of scale through increased sales volumes.
This serves as a partial offset to the impact of low inflation rates. During periods of elevated short-term inflation, as we have recently experienced, companies are compelled to pass on higher costs (such as materials, labor, and energy) directly to end customers in order to protect their profitability. Companies that are well-positioned and have high-demand products are more successful in this endeavor compared to those offering easily substitutable products. However, even some companies with weaker positioning have managed to achieve growth in sales and profits, as price increases have more than compensated for declining sales volumes.
The latter impressively illustrates the distorted perception that can arise from high nominal growth rates. Short-term wage increases, although initially positive for consumer sentiment, also contribute to this phenomenon. The concept of money illusion highlights the tendency for people to concentrate on nominal figures while paying insufficient attention to inflation. As a result, the effective loss of purchasing power is often neglected or recognized with a delay. Consequently, nominal economic growth of 5% with 7% inflation feels better than 0% growth with 2% inflation.
Higher interest rates have undeniably made the current environment more challenging. Expensive valuations must be consistently justified with profit growth, as any disappointments are swiftly penalized by the market. This was evident in parts of the health sector, which had benefited greatly from the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic but has since struggled to sustain the previous growth and has underperformed the market as a consequence. Nonetheless, the first half of the year demonstrated that economic prospects were overly pessimistic, and the anticipated slowdown was premature.
It takes time for the effects of higher interest rates to fully unfold. It is important to note that higher interest rates do not necessarily indicate rates that are too high for sustainable economic growth. Currently, the various economic indicators present an inconsistent picture. Central banks are likely to maintain higher interest rates until inflation appears to be firmly under control. The trajectory of inflation plays a vital role in determining real interest rates. As interest rates stabilize, the risk premium benefits from reduced uncertainty, enabling a stronger emphasis on profit growth.
The economic and investment landscape remains challenging, demanding thorough and nimble analysis of assets to be well-prepared for various scenarios. By exclusively investing in direct investments, we closely monitor the progress of all companies held in our portfolio and can promptly respond when needed. Additionally, we prioritize a balanced distribution of company characteristics to ensure the resilience of our portfolio. The past year highlighted the importance of not solely relying on growth but also considering valuations for sustainable long-term performance. A relative valuation discount to the market and comparable companies provides a margin of safety to better withstand unpredictability. In the current environment, we do not compromise on quality and valuation.
Despite the presence of various risks, adhering to our long-term strategy, maintaining disciplined ownership of the best companies in our portfolio, and trusting in their ongoing pursuit of growth and efficiency, regardless of the market conditions, has once again proven successful. We capitalized on the divergent performance of individual positions by realizing profits from volatile cyclical stocks and reinvesting them in attractively valued, more defensive opportunities.
Zurich, end of June 2023.
Business models, consumption and investment behavior as well as the valuation of assets are all influenced by the most important driver of the economy – the price of money, i.e. interest rates. Interestingly, in the so-called free market economy, this is not left to the market, but is controlled by the central banks. This is done in an attempt to stabilize the economic cycle and keep inflation constant. Events in recent weeks have shown that the free-market economy does not fully live up to its definition in other ways either, as once again several banks were rescued with state intervention. Banks are particularly fragile due to their low equity in relation to the overall balance sheet, which is why the first consequences of the sharp rise in interest rates have now become apparent in this sector. If something is fundamentally fragile, it is dependent on external factors such as trust or hope. One of our quality criteria when investing is to ensure that dependencies on individual external factors are as small as possible. Robust earning power over the entire economic cycle in combination with low levels of debt in relation to the stability of earnings is essential. When it comes to our investments, we do not rely on visions, lenders or even the state.
The side effects of low borrowing costs are multifaceted. On the one hand, thanks to low interest rates, borrowers with leasing, mortgages or corporate loans have been able to benefit from negligible borrowing costs, which has strongly stimulated consumption and investments. On the other hand, this has enabled consumption and business models that cannot be sustained at normal interest rates. This leads to a misallocation of resources, particularly with regards to labor, which is detrimental to long-term economic development. Savers, on the other hand, had to invest their money to maintain the prospect of a return. Accordingly, demand for assets was high and, as a result, their valuation increased. With higher interest rates, the initial situation has changed noticeably. Investments in bonds, money market funds and even savings accounts are once again yielding interest. Although these do not compensate for the current high inflation rates, they make a noticeable contribution to reducing the general increase in cost of living. At the same time, borrowers are faced with higher capital costs and the population in general with higher prices due to inflation. All this is a drag on economic development. Nevertheless, the consumer is still in good shape, also thanks to low unemployment, while seemingly still having some catching up to do after the Covid withdrawal.
Central banks across the globe are currently grappling with determining the appropriate magnitude of interest rate increases required to align demand with supply and stabilize prices. The impact of elevated interest rates is not immediate, as the full effects may take time to materialize. While listed asset valuations are known to respond promptly to shifts in interest rates, the efficacy of interest rate increases on borrowers’ interest expenses can take years to fully manifest, contingent on the maturity of the outstanding debt.
In light of the banking sector’s instability, central banks are now confronted with the challenge of effectively balancing the objectives of combatting inflation and stabilizing the financial system. The repercussions of failing to achieve this equilibrium would be significant, encompassing a range of economic and social impacts resulting from both elevated inflation rates and destabilized financial systems.
Given the prolonged period of low interest rates and the rapid pace of the recent rate hikes, it is plausible that additional vulnerabilities may arise over time. The upcoming quarters will provide greater clarity on the extent to which the shift in interest rates will endure over the long term or represent a transitory phenomenon. During times of heightened uncertainty, it is critical to rely on steadfast principles. In our situation, this involves utilizing the superior quality of our investment holdings and the relatively short-term maturities of our bond portfolio to maintain our flexibility.
Zurich, end of March 2023.
Review
A balanced investment profile aims to offset various influencing factors and stabilize the return. An investor in bonds provides debt capital to companies and is usually compensated with a fixed interest rate. An investor in equities is a co-owner and thus participates in the profits or losses of a company. If the economy grows, corporate profits tend to rise and equities yield a higher return than fixed-interest bonds. In uncertain times, on the other hand, investors seek the safe returns of bonds. Typically, bonds gain in value when stocks perform badly.
Not so this year. Balanced investment portfolios had one of the worst years on record. The reason for this was that the market’s perception changed within a very short period from persistently too low inflation to fear of lasting high inflation. In this context, the very low interest rates of the recent past lost their justification, which caused a strong correction of fixed-interest bonds. Consequently, equities also faltered, because their valuation or earnings yields, are in direct competition with bond yields.
Development of global equities vs. bond yields
The trend of falling interest rates lasted 40 years, peaked with negative nominal yields in some currencies last year and now experienced a dramatic reversal. Accordingly, previous beneficiaries of this trend suffered the most, especially long-dated bonds, expensively valued defensive quality and growth stocks.
Outlook
Now that the U.S. Federal Reserve has raised interest rates at an unprecedented pace, and other central banks around the world have followed suit, the question is how well this interest rate level can be absorbed by consumers, companies and governments. On the one hand, higher interest rates and the increased prices of many goods are straining the budget. On the other hand, the labor market continues to be very robust, wage negotiations are promising, and demand is stagnating at a high level. With China now also easing covid measures, the full impact on demand is difficult to assess at present.
In case the economy weakens, interest rates should stabilize, which would have a supportive effect on equity valuations. However, the development of corporate profits is then likely to be less positive. The various interdependencies between growth, inflation, interest rates and valuations make the current situation challenging. In contrast to the starting position one year ago, bond yields are once again contributing to portfolio returns. The valuation of the stock market reflects the higher interest rate level and, at least partially, the economic slowdown expected by most economists next year.
Conclusion
It is advisable to be prepared for various scenarios and to take a long-term perspective. Current interest rates offer a stable source of income, which is why we have increased the bond allocation and extended our maturities slightly. Due to the sharp rise in interest rates and the resulting changes and risks for the market and the economy, we consider a neutral equity weight to be appropriate at present. Nevertheless, valuations are less demanding and offer good entry points for long-term investors. We expect uncertainties to persist and market developments to remain challenging. However, times like these always offer good opportunities to identify new investments that are at a valuation discount due to the current environment. The resilience of our portfolios remains the upmost priority.
Zurich, end of December 2022
Low inflation rates accompanied by low interest rates have favored high asset valuations. After some 40 years, this trend has reached its temporary peak with the Covid crisis. The structural drivers of low inflation rates are facing headwinds for the first time in many years. Globalization, in particular the full outsourcing of production, has been challenged by geopolitical tensions. Energy supply dependencies have revealed underestimated risks. Technological progress continues to be unstoppable but is currently being held back by supply bottlenecks and is not fast enough to counteract the abruptly changing circumstances. In addition, low unemployment offers employees a promising negotiating position for wage increases.
While the supply side is facing various challenges, the demand side has fully recovered, also thanks to government support, putting additional strain on already troubled supply chains. Various studies have addressed this issue and have concluded that both supply and demand contribute significantly to the current high inflation. Unlike demand, the supply side needs time and investments to overcome these challenges.
The U.S. Federal Reserve is currently trying to curb demand with exceptionally high interest rate hikes, and the other central banks are following suit to varying degrees. From corporate and consumer loans to mortgages, a more restrictive monetary policy is hitting consumers, investors and companies. Until recently, almost cost-free debt capital has enabled financing endeavors that are no longer profitable or sustainable at higher capital costs. Combined with higher prices, especially energy costs, this is expected to cool economic activity until supply chains return to normal and supply can keep pace with demand. Flattening demand is also intended to counteract the tight labor market. This is because broad-based wage increases on the scale of current inflation could set the undesired inflation spiral in motion.
The consequences of higher interest rates on asset prices are very apparent, as we have seen significant corrections. With interest rates and thus capital costs close to zero, there were hardly any opportunity costs in recent years. Accordingly, good marketing was sometimes sufficient to drive up a company’s valuation. Tangible near-term profits and sound financial valuation seemed to be less important.
The U.S. Federal Reserve is currently trying to curb demand with exceptionally high interest rate hikes, and the other central banks are following suit to varying degrees. From corporate and consumer loans to mortgages, a more restrictive monetary policy is hitting consumers, investors and companies. Until recently, almost cost-free debt capital has enabled financing endeavors that are no longer profitable or sustainable at higher capital costs. Combined with higher prices, especially energy costs, this is expected to cool economic activity until supply chains return to normal and supply can keep pace with demand. Flattening demand is also intended to counteract the tight labor market. This is because broad-based wage increases on the scale of current inflation could set the undesired inflation spiral in motion. The consequences of higher interest rates on asset prices are very apparent, as we have seen significant corrections. With interest rates and thus capital costs close to zero, there were hardly any opportunity costs in recent years. Accordingly, good marketing was sometimes sufficient to drive up a company’s valuation. Tangible near-term profits and sound financial valuation seemed to be less important.
This year has been a stark reminder to investors that it is not enough to simply buy good companies with attractive growth prospects. The price at which it is being bought is just as crucial to the success of an investment in the long term. With the end of the low interest rate environment, the valuation is once again taking center stage. Higher interest rates mean higher opportunity costs and lead to a lower present value of potential future profits. The higher the valuation, the more this base effect comes into play. The speed at which individual companies recover from this correction is thus directly related to how high the valuation was in the first place. Another complicating factor is that the current environment with higher input costs and cooling demand is making it more difficult for companies to increase profits in the short term.
Valuation plays a central role in the selection of our investments. We invest exclusively in above-average quality, but always put this in relation to the valuation. Only if this ratio is attractive, we consider making an investment. We are convinced that a disciplined focus on both factors produces the best results in the long term. This applies to both equities and bonds. As a result of higher interest rates, fixed-income investments are once again a more attractive complement to equities and allow to generate reliable and stabilizing returns in economically and geopolitically uncertain times.
Zurich, end of September 2022
Review
Record-low interest rates coupled with record-high inflation are leading to deeply negative real interest rates. To correct this situation, either interest rates must rise or inflation rates must fall. Since inflation has turned out to be less “transitory” than central banks had hoped, they now see themselves forced to raise interest rates substantially.
Whereas valuations in recent years were justified by low, and in some cases negative, interest rates, this valuation correction based on sharply rising interest rates is also justified. Capital is always looking for the most attractive return in relation to the given risks. Thus, if the yields of reliable and steady bonds increase, this also requires an increase in the yield of equities in order to keep the risk premium over bonds constant. This can be done either by increasing the yields or by correcting the valuation.
The current problem is that interest rates have risen very quickly and corporate earnings growth has not kept pace. There is also the problem of the base effect. Because of low interest rates, small increases in interest rates are large increases in percentage terms. The same applies to company valuations: the more expensive a company is, the higher the earnings growth must be to compensate for the rise in interest rates and maintain the risk premium compared with fixed-interest investments. As higher interest rates also have a slowing effect on economic development, companies’ earnings growth tends to slow down. Ongoing cost pressure due to strained supply chains and labor shortages further exacerbates this problem.
The risk premium on equities is therefore under pressure on both sides. Higher interest rates combined with presumably lower earnings. Particularly hard hit by this situation are companies with demanding valuations, which have to grow disproportionately in order to correct their own valuation. These are precisely the companies that have benefited in recent years from steadily lower interest rates and positive economic development and have received a lot of attention from the media and trend investors.
Outlook
Whereas historically central banks could be relied upon to counter an economic slowdown with interest rate cuts, this time the starting position is reversed. Central banks are forced to raise interest rates due to high inflation rates and to accept an economic slowdown. Depending on the intensity of the growth slowdown, the current high inflation rates should fall and bring about a stabilization of interest rates. It cannot be ruled out that the current investments by companies to eliminate the supply shortage could even lead to a supply surplus and renewed deflationary tendencies as the economy weakens.
Much depends on the further development of inflation rates and the resulting interest rates. On the positive side, after a long wait, investors in fixed-income investments are once again receiving a return, even if this is not yet keeping pace with inflation. In the event of a return to lower inflation rates, the current interest rates could prove to be an attractive opportunity. The money in the account, on the other hand, is fully exposed to the high inflation rates, but allows at least temporarily to benefit from better opportunities to buy assets.
The challenging initial situation makes it necessary to focus on proven features in the stocks, which help to survive a more difficult situation. A leading market positioning secures earnings despite rising costs. Structural growth areas cushion the economic cycle somewhat, and an attractive valuation makes it easier to compensate for any interest rate rises. Temporary profiteers such as commodity companies do not meet our quality requirements in the long term any more than overpriced growth companies did before the correction began this year. Short- to medium-term market dislocations, on the other hand, are a part of investing and offer attractive opportunities to profit from valuation deviations in the long run.
Zurich, end of June 2022